Prediction markets’ forward march has been relentless. 

This week, the National Basketball Association announced Polymarket and Kalshi would be the league’s “preferred” prediction markets. Kalshi struck a similar deal with S&P Dow Jones indices. 

Dare we say, however, that the most interesting news came last week? Yes, on October 20, DefiLlama and Trueo announced their own partnership: DefiLlama will feature Trueo prediction markets in a brand-new dashboard. Those markets are powered by DefiLlama data, and allow users to place bets on protocols’ future revenue, on the likelihood of certain exploits, and much more. 

Like the broader prediction market industry, this partnership was both celebrated and condemned. Here’s why. 

To our knowledge, these are the first markets that allow users to bet on the likelihood of exploits, DeFi revenue targets, and other onchain metrics. 

Trueo’s self-described “hype man,” the pseudonymous Millie, called the integration “massive.” 

“DefiLlama is the most widely adopted analytics platform in crypto, they cover everything onchain. With this partnership, Trueo’s markets are integrated directly into the dashboards that are so essential to onchain research,” they wrote on X. “I envision a future where prediction markets are embedded into virtually every news, media, and data platform. This partnership is a leap in that direction.” 

Well put, Millie. 

Despite some prominent misses — see Sunday’s election in Brazil, for example — prediction markets’ have a solid track record. Their utility is, at this point, undeniable. They’ve even drawn interest from businesses that rely on high-quality data. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have reportedly expressed interest “in exploring potential avenues for participation.” CNN, CNBC, and Fox have given the industry a vote of confidence by integrating prediction market data. 

In other words, prediction market data are an overdue addition to the DefiLlama suite. An example helps to illustrate why. 

A DefiLlama user might want to invest in the AERO token, one of the few that directly benefits from the success of its protocol. One of our most popular prediction markets to date is titled “Aero Protocol October revenue exceeds $10M?” As of Wednesday, bettors placed the odds of that happening at just over 1%. 

That doesn’t tell you much — the month is almost over, and Aero has seen just $7 million in revenue so far. But it was useful when the market launched on October 20. At that point, Aero had seen five consecutive weeks in which it generated just under $2 million in revenue. A $10 million month was still within reach, but bettors put the odds at just 33%. Clearly, they did not see a catalyst that would send weekly revenue soaring. And they were right.

To understand why this was controversial, though, you only need to take a look at the other top markets. 

These are the top six markets in terms of trade volume: 

Clearly, people enjoy betting on hacks. Unsurprisingly, several people have taken issue with this offering. Critics say the markets incentivize hackers, or, at the very least, juice their rewards for a crime they already planned on committing. That’s because anyone who finds a vulnerability can place a bet they’re guaranteed to win. 

Security analyst Timur Güvenkaya wrote, “every protocol should be watching these markets. A sudden spike in exploit odds could mean someone is sitting on a [vulnerability] and buying ‘yes’ first. Attackers now get paid twice.”

DefiLlama Chief Revenue Officer Patrick Scott had a very different take. In fact, he said these markets “have the potential to solve DeFi hack risk.” 

“Imagine you're entering a DeFi pool, but are concerned about the tail risk of an exploit,” he wrote. “If the market prices that at 1% odds, you can put 1% of your deposit towards that and fully hedge your position.”

To check out the dashboard yourself, visit defillama.com/predictions.

Last year’s State of DeFi report set out to be a year-end map of the primitives that matter, tracing DeFi’s shift from speculative cycle to durable financial system.

The map followed the money through stablecoins, protocol revenue, and the trading stack, from perps to token issuance and prediction markets. It also covered onchain credit, governance, digital asset treasuries, and changing MEV tactics. Interviews with teams like RedStone and kpk added the view from the infrastructure underneath. 

The second edition is in the works, and the Research team wants more of those voices in it. Teams and protocols that want to take part can book a call. 

Book a call today to find out more.

14,000+ pools is a lot to sift through, human or clanker. So, DefiLlama released the new Yield Discover feature within the Yield dashboard section to help make things a bit easier.

It sorts DefiLlama’s pools into five views:

Llama Tip: Still got questions? LlamaAI can help. Choose from a selection pre-loaded prompts directly from the Yield dashboard.