“Prediction markets function as a forum for decentralized truth,” the chairman of the CFTC told attendees at the DC Blockchain Summit earlier this year, sounding more like Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin than a Washington bureaucrat. 

“No longer do we wait for news corporations and their army of editors, anointed in the dark and pushing slanted viewpoints, to dictate the narrative. Instead, truth bubbles up from diverse, decentralized voices, often faster and more reliably than legacy reporting.” 

As it happens, those comments came in March — the same month that searches for “prediction markets” peaked on Google. 

Although searches have declined precipitously since, prediction markets continue to make headlines: Charles Schwab is building its own slimmed-down prediction market, the Wall Street Journal reported in June. Cantor Fitzgerald just announced it would serve as a broker for clients interested in trading on Kalshi. 

So what do the numbers tell us? Are we speeding toward a new, market-based “information system,” as Selig put it? Or are declining search engine figures a sign that these platforms have hit some kind of wall?

First, a caveat: Our latest report covers crypto-based prediction markets. Because they operate on public blockchains, their business can be measured by anyone in real-time. Traditional financial businesses are different — that is, they’re opaque. This report does not include prediction markets that live entirely offchain, such as those offered by Robinhood and CME Group. It includes trade volume for Kalshi and Polymarket, but it does not include fees, revenue, or TVL for Kalshi or Polymarket US. 

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the market. DefiLlama tracks 116 prediction market protocols, but there are only two that really matter: Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Kalshi accounted for 70% of prediction market volume over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama data. Polymarket, although sitting in a distant second place at 25%, saw more volume than every other prediction market combined. 

But here’s the bigger story: prediction market volume has grown 1,900% since July 2025. 

That month, prediction markets processed $955 million in transactions. Polymarket accounted for the lion’s share of those transactions. August 2025 saw similar numbers. 

Then the industry took off. This past July, prediction markets volume peaked at more than $19 billion, most of it coming from Kalshi. 

Now it’s mired in a mini-slump, with weekly volume dropping about a quarter from its all-time high at the end of June. 

But that slump isn’t evenly distributed. Polymarket’s weekly volume has fallen 51% from its peak,  to $587 million. Weekly volume on Kalshi, meanwhile, has fallen just 13% from its peak. 

Polymarket appears to have lost its prediction market crown, and it’s clear why. 

In late March, Polymarket added trading fees to almost all its markets. The reaction was swift: volume fell almost 12% in April, to about $4 billion, while Kalshi’s rose 2%, to about $5 billion. In May, Polymarket volume fell further, which the company attributed to ongoing "technology maintenance" and a disruptive migration to a new settlement token. In June, the Wall Street Journal published an exposé revealing the company had paid “dozens of mostly college-age creators” to post videos in which they celebrated profitable trades. The problem? Those trades were fake. 

Now, the CFTC — run by prediction market evangelist Michael Selig — is investigating. 

To learn more about the Kalshi’s incredible run and what, exactly, people are trading on prediction markets, you can find the rest of our report here.

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